|Ali Mosleh, Ph.D.
Evalyn Knight Chair in Engineering
Area of Thesis Guidance
Reliability engineering, physics of failure modeling and system life prediction, resilient systems design, prognostics and health monitoring, hybrid systems simulation, theories and techniques for risk and safety analysis
Dr. Ali Mosleh is Distinguished Professor and holder of the Evalyn Knight Chair in Engineering at the University of California in Los Angeles. Prior to that he was the Nicole J. Kim Eminent Professor of Engineering and Director of the Center for Risk and Reliability at the University of Maryland. He was elected to the US National Academy of Engineering in 2010, and is a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis, and the American Nuclear Society, recipient of several scientific achievement awards, and consultant and technical advisor to numerous national and international organizations, including appointment by President George W. Bush to the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, a position in which he continued to serve in the administration of President Obama. He conducts research on methods for probabilistic risk analysis and reliability of complex systems and has made many contributions in diverse fields of theory and application. These include risk and reliability of hybrid systems of hardware, human and software; complex systems prognostics and health monitoring with limited information; dynamic systems reliability; common cause failure analysis; accident sequence precursor methodology; Bayesian methods of inference with uncertain evidence; reliability growth prediction; methods for software reliability and cyber security; cognitive models for human performance in complex systems; and models of the influence of organizational factors on system reliability and safety. On these topics he holds several patents, and has edited, authored or co-authored over 450 publications including books, guidebooks, and technical papers. In 2013 he received the American Nuclear Society Tommy Thompson Award for his numerous contributions to improvement of reactor safety. Dr. Mosleh has led many major studies on risk and safety of complex systems such as space missions, nuclear power plants, commercial aviation, communication networks, and healthcare systems. He has chaired or organized numerous international technical conferences and is on the editorial board of several technical journals.
PhD, Nuclear Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, 1981
MS, Nuclear Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, 1978
BS, Physics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran, 1975
ACADEMIC CAREER HISTORY
- Distinguished University Professor and Evelyn Knight Chair in Engineering at Materials Science and Engineering Department, (March 1, 2014-Present), Joint Appointment with Electrical Engineering Department, University of California, Los Angeles
- Nicole J. Kim Eminent Professor of Engineering (1996 – Feb 2014), Reliability Engineering Program (Mechanical Engineering Department), and Nuclear Engineering Program (Materials Engineering Department), University of Maryland
- Associate Professor (1992-1996), Assistant Professor (1988-1991), Materials & Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Maryland
- Director, Center for Risk and Reliability, Clark School of Engineering, University of Maryland (2004-2014)
- Director (1998-2008), Reliability Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland
- Director (1992-1996) Nuclear Engineering Program, Materials & Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Maryland.
Senior Consultant, PLG Inc. (Engineering Consulting Firm) 1981-1988.
OTHER Positions and Responsibilities
- Board Member, US Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board (Appointed by President G.W. Bush, 2004 and 2008, continued under President Obama through 2012)
Advisory Committees and Review Panels including
o President Clinton’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection (1998-2000)
o Board Member, Marine Board, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (2010-present)
o Technical Advisory Board, Japan Nuclear Safety Institute (2012-present)
o RAMS Advisory Board, (2012-present)
o Technical Review Board, The B. John Garrick Foundation for the Advancement of the Risk Sciences (2001-present)
o National Academies of Science and Engineering, numerous panels and committees (2001-Present)
o Civil Aviation Authority, Government of The Netherlands, Aviation Safety Advisory Panel (2005-2009)
o International Atomic Energy Agency (expert missions to various countries, and member of numerous technical committees on risk, 1986-2004)
o US Department of Defense, Neutralization of Chemical Weapons (Advisory Panel 2002-2004)
o NASA (Space Shuttle and International Space Station risk studies, 1996-2002)
o National Institute of Standards and Technology, Information Security Risk (1989-1999)
o National Science Foundation (Review Panels 1984-2004)
o Electric Power Research Institute (Advisory and Technical Review Panels, 1984-2004)
o Nuclear Regulatory Commission (Expert Panels, Review Committees, 1988-Present)
- Board of Directors, Human Reliability Society (2012-present)
- Board of Directors, International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (1994-2004)
- Chair, Engineering Division, Society for Risk Analysis (1995-2005)
- Engineering Editor, International Journal of Risk Analysis (2001-2005)
- Editorial Boards: Reliability Engineering and System Safety (1994-1999), Risk Analysis (1988-1998), Journal of Risk and Reliability (2006-present)
- Chair of the Executive Committee, Human Factors Division of the American Nuclear Society, 1996-1998
- Board of Directors, Item Software International, 2001-pesent
- Board of Directors, Prediction Technologies Inc., 2000-present
HONORS AND AWARDS
- Member, National Academy of Engineering (Elected, 2010)
- Nicole J. Kim Eminent Professor of Engineering (2005-2014)
- Glenn L. Martin Institute Professor (2010-2014)
- Fellow, American Nuclear Society (Elected 2013)
- Fellow, Society for Risk Analysis (Elected 1999)
- Tommy Thompson Award, American Nuclear Society (2013)
- Gilbert White Fellow, Resources for the Future (2010)
- Evans- McElroy Award, IEEE Reliability Society (2009)
- Rotary National Award for Space Achievement (1998)
- NASA Flight Safety Award (1998)
- Ford Quality Award, Ford Motor Company (1997)
- P.K. McElroy Award, IEEE Reliability Society (1995)
- Numerous Best Paper Awards: American Nuclear Society, European Nuclear Society, System Safety Society, IEEE Reliability Society, Society for Risk Analyses, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE)
- Simulation-Based Methods for Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Complex Systems
- Hybrid Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis Methods (Identification of Failure Mechanisms and Reliability prediction of Hybrid Systems of Hardware, Software, and Human)
- Bayesian Methods for System Health Monitoring and Sensor Placement (Solution Algorithms for Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Belief Networks)
- Bayesian Methods for Inference with Uncertain Evidence, Use of Expert Opinion, and Causal Modeling with Bayesian Belief Networks
- Common Cause Failure Analysis (Reliability Models, Data Classification and Analysis)
- Risk-based oversight and inspection of Infrastructure Systems (e.g. Civil Aviation Safety, Oil and Gas Pipeline Integrity Management)
- Methods for the Impact of Organizational Factors on Socio-technical Systems Risk
- Human Reliability Analysis (Cognitive Modeling, Simulation, Experimental Validation)
- Methods for Assessing Model Uncertainty and Model Validation (Framework and Application to Complex Computational Codes)
- Risk-Informed Healthcare System Management
- System Reliability Growth Tracking and Prediction Methods
- Software Reliability Assessment Methodology
- Information Systems Security Risk Management
- Natural Hazards Risk Analysis (e.g., Seismic Events, Flooding)
- Precursor Methodology for Risk Indicators and Early Warning Systems
- Quantitative Risk Assessment System (U.S. Patent, 6223143-2001, issued 2001)
- Automation of Common Cause Failure Modeling and Quantification (U.S. Patent, 6820044-2004, issued 2004)
- System and Methods for Assessing Risk Using Hybrid Causal Logic (US Patent 7774293-2010, issued 2010)
RISK ASSESSMENT SOFTWARE DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT
(Led the design and development team)
- IRIS (Integrated Risk Information System)developed for the US Federal Aviation Administration for risk-informed safety oversight, 2007.
- SimPRA (Simulation Based Probabilistic Risk Analysis System) developed for risk-based design of complex hybrid systems under a grand from NASA, 2005
- QRAS (Quantitative Risk Analysis System) developed for NASA for Space Shuttle mission risk management, 1997, 2001, 2002, developed for NASA (currently a commercial software used by several government agencies and industries worldwide).
- R-DAT (Reliability Data Analysis Tool) comprehensive Bayesian estimation software for hierarchical Bayesian analysis, expert opinion aggregation, uncertain data, 2005 (currently a commercial software used by governments agencies and industries worldwide).
- ADS (Accident Dynamics Simulator, Versions 1, 2, 3 ) performs dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of technological systems, developed under grants from UMD, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Electric Power Research Institute, Ship Research Institute of Japan, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland, 1993, 2001, 2006, 2009, 2013.
- BRAS (Bayesian Reliability Analysis System) for product reliability growth tracking and projection, 2005 (currently a commercial software used by several government agencies and industries worldwide).
- ReDCAS (Reliability Data Collection and Analysis System) performs Bayesian reliability analysis based on design engineer judgment, developed for Ford Motor Company, 1996.
- CCF (Common Cause Failure Software) performs classification and analysis of common cause failure events, developed with the Idaho National Laboratory for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1995.
- CCDAT (Common Cause Data Analysis Tool) developed for the Electric Power Research Institute, 1993.
- BDSS (Bayesian Decision Support System) for computer security risk assessment and management, developed for OPA and PLG Inc., 1982.
- DATAMAN, Bayesian analysis of data, developed for PLG Inc., 1986
CONTRACTS and GRANTS
Over $31 M in Research Grants and Contracts at University of Maryland, sponsored by government agencies (e.g., NRC, EPA, NASA, FAA, NIST, NSF), and industry (e.g., Nuclear Utilities, Petrochemical Industry, Electric Power Research Institute, Ford, General Electric, Lucent Technologies)
PhD: 37 (University of Maryland), 3 (European Universities), 1 (China)
MS: 42 (University of Maryland), 3 (European Universities)
PhD STUDENTS (ADVISED at UMD)
PhD: 1 (UCLA), 8 (University of Maryland)
MS: 8 (University of Maryland)
SELECTED TRAINING SEMINARS AND SHORT COURSES
- Advanced Methods for Reliability Data Collection and Analysis, Petrobras, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sept 2012
- Advanced Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Aug 2009
- Advanced Methods for Systems Reliability, Korean Railroad Research Institute, and Korean Aerospace University, Sept 2009
- Probabilistic Risk Assessment Training, NASA, Dec 2000, April 2001, July 2002, July 2003, Oct 2005, Oct 2006, June 2008, Oct 2009
- Dynamic PRA Methods, China National Defense University, China, Oct 2008
- Advanced Methods for Reliability, US Air Force, July 2007, US Navy, August 2007
- Dynamic PRA Methods, NASA Ames Research Center, July 2002
- Data Analysis for Risk Applications, NASA Johnson Space Center, April 2002
- Elicitation and Use of Expert Opinion in Risk Analysis, NASA Johnson Space Center, May 2002
- Stochastic Processes for Risk Applications, NASA Johnson Space Center, June, 2002
- Methods of Elicitation and Use of Expert Opinion, USDA February 2002
- Bayesian Reliability, Motorola, March 2000
- Advanced Methods for Systems Reliability, Motorola, January and June, 1999
- Advanced Reliability Methods, U.S. Navy, October 1997
- Methods for Safety Analysis of Nuclear Facilities, International Atomic Energy Agency Short Course, Madrid, Spain, April 1993
- Methods for the Analysis of Common Cause Failures, National Technological University, August 1992
- Dynamic PRA and Human Reliability, Institute for Nuclear Energy Research, Taiwan, August 1991
- Quality PSA: What a PSA Review Should Look For, International Atomic Energy Agency Course on PRA, Vienna, Aug 1990
- PRA Techniques, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, Dec. 1989.
- Data Analysis and Common Cause Failure Modeling, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 1989
- Bayesian Methods in Data Analysis, Electricite de France, Paris, France, March 1988.
- Data Analysis and Common Cause Modeling, Atomic Energy Commission, Taipei, Taiwan, June 1988
- Advanced Methods for Common Cause Failure Analysis, The Joint Research Center, Commission of the European Communities, Italy, Nov. 1987
- Computer Security Risk Analysis, Computer Security Institute, Chicago, Nov. 1985
Risk, reliability, and system safety applications for various companies and government agencies (e.g., Nuclear Unities, EPRI, National Laboratories, Exxon-Mobil, Petrobras, Motorola, Lockheed Martin, ABS Consulting, AT&T, International Atomic Energy Agency, Department of Defense, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Department of Energy, Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, Food and Drug Administration)
CONFERENCES and OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Principal Organizer, Workshop Series on Advanced Topics in Risk and Reliability Analysis.
- Model Uncertainty In Risk-Informed Decision Making Context, Annapolis, May 2009
- Performance Shaping Factors and Context in Human Reliability Analysis, Rockville, Maryland, February 2008
- Dynamic PRA, Annapolis, Maryland, October 2007
- Model Uncertainty: Characterization and Quantification, Annapolis, Maryland, October 1993
- Human Reliability Models: Theoretical and Practical Challenges, Stockholm, Sweden, Aug. 1994
- Environmental Risk Assessment: Current Status and Role in Environmental Policy Making Seoul, Korea, Dec. 1994
- Reliability Growth Modeling: Objectives, Expectations, and Approaches, Lexington Park, Maryland, October 1995
- Accident Sequence Precursors and Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Madison, WI, July 1995
- Advanced Methods for Human Reliability Analysis, Seattle WA, June, 1998
- Dynamic Systems Reliability, Washington D.C., September 1998
Co-Chair, International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICQRMS 2011, Xi’an, China, June 17-19, 2011.
Technical Program Chair, Safety and Risk Analysis Division of ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress, Orlando, Nov. 2005
Technical Program Chair, International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, PSAM-4, New York, Sept. 1998.
Co-Chair, NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Reliability of Dynamic Systems, Turkey, August 1993.
Chair, 4th International Computer Security Risk Modeling Workshop, University of Maryland, College Park, August 6-8 1991.
Co-Organizer, Technical Coordinator, Program Committee:
- International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PASM): PSAM 12, Helsinki, June 2012, PSAM-10, Seattle, May 2010, PSAM-9, Hong Kong May 2008, PSAM-7, Berlin, June 2004; PSAM-6, Puerto Rico, June 2002; PSAM-5, Osaka, Japan, Dec., 2000; PSAM-III, Crete, Greece, June 1996; PSAM-II, San Diego, March 1994; PSAM-I, Beverly Hills, Ca, Feb1991.
- ANS/ENS International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment PSA ’10, PSA’96, PSA’99, PSA’02, PSA’05, PSA’08
- Annual Conference of the Society for Risk Analysis, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003
- International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment, PSA’95, Korea 1995
- International Topical Meeting on Computer-Based Human Support Systems: Technology, Methods, and Future, Philadelphia, June 1995.
- Simulation Multi-Conference of the Society for Computer Simulation, Virginia, March 1993.
- Joint Conference of the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling & Analysis (ISUMA) and the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society (NAFIPS), College Park, Maryland, 1995.
- First International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, University of Maryland, College Park, Dec. 3-5, 1990.
- Organized and chaired over 100 technical sessions and panels in conferences on various topics in risk and reliability analysis
- Society for Risk Analysis (Fellow)
- American Nuclear Society (Fellow)
- IEEE Society
- Society of Reliability Engineering
Edited Volumes, Book Chapters, and Guest Editorship
Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Volumes 1-4, A. Mosleh and R. Bari (Eds.) Springer-Verlag, London 1998
Reliability and Safety Assessment of Dynamic Process Systems, T. Aldemir, N. Siu, and A. Mosleh (Eds.) Springer-Verlag Publishing, Berlin, 1994.
Editor of various proceedings of the International Workshop Series on Advanced Topics in Risk and Reliability Analysis published and distributed through Center for Risk and Reliability (CRR)
Model Uncertainty: Characterization and Quantification, A. Mosleh, N. Siu, C. Smidts, and C. Liu (Eds.) CRR Publication, 1995.
Reliability Growth Modeling, A. Mosleh and K. Farquhar (Eds.) CRR Publication, 1999
Environmental Risk Assessment: Current Status and Role in Environmental Policy Making, N. Siu and C.K. Park (Eds.), CRR Publication 1996
Accident Sequence Precursors and Probabilistic Risk Assessment, V.M. Bier (Ed.) CRR Publication 1997
Advanced Methods for Human Reliability Analysis, H. Blackman, N. Siu, and A. Mosleh, (Eds.) CRR Publication 1998
Dynamic Systems Reliability, C. Smidts (Ed), CRR Publication 1998
Third International Workshop on Dynamic Systems Reliability, C. Smidts and T. Aldemir (Eds), CRR Publication, 2013
Second International Workshop on Model Uncertainty, A. Mosleh and J. Wood (Eds), CRR Publications, 2014
Guest Editor: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Special Issue on Dependent Failure, Analysis, 34, 1991.
Bayesian Reliability Analysis, Encyclopedia of Electrical Engineering, J. Webster (Ed), John Wiley, 1998.
Estimation of Common Cause Failure Model Parameters, in Common Cause Failure Analysis in Probabilistic Safety Assessment, A. Amendola (Ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1989.
Guidebooks and Source Books
Common-Cause Failure Database and Analysis System: Event Data Collection, Classification, and Coding, NUREG/CR-6268, Revision 1. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, September 2007, with T.E. Wierman and D. Rasmuson.
Guidebook for Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Space Missions, Writing Group, NASA April, 2002
Guidelines for the Analysis of Common Cause Failures in Probabilistic Risk Studies, Mosleh, A, and D. Rasmuson, NUREG-5780 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Oct. 1997.
Guidelines for Quantification of Common Cause Failure Probabilities, Mosleh, A., et al., Publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Dec. 1997.
Procedures for Treating Common Cause Failures in Safety and Reliability Studies, Mosleh A. et al, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Electric Power Research Institute, NUREG/CR-4780, and EPRI NP-5613. Volumes 1 and 2, 1988.
A Data Base for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants, Vols. 1-7, PLG-300, 1989.
Mosleh, “PRA: A Perspective on Strengths, Current Limitations, and Possible Improvements,” Invited Paper, Nuclear Engineering and Technology Special on Lessons Learned from Fukushima NPP Accident, Journal of the Korean Nuclear Society, Vol. 46 No.1, 2014
Masoud Pourali and A. Mosleh, “A Bayesian Approach to Sensor Placement Optimization and System Reliability Monitoring,” Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2013 Volume 227 Issue 3, June 2013
Masoud Pourali and A. Mosleh, “A Functional Sensor Placement Optimization Method for Power Systems Health Monitoring”, IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications, Vol 49, No 4, 2013.
James Chang, Dennis Bley, Lawrence Criscione, Barry Kirwan, Ali Mosleh, Todd Madary, Rodney Nowell, Robert Richards, Emilie M. Roth, Scott Sieben, Antonios Zoulis, “The SACADA Database for Human Reliability and Human Performance, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2013 DOI: dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.014
Enrique Lo´pez Droguett and Ali Mosleh, Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models, Risk Analysis, Vol. 34, No. 2,
Jackson, C. and A. Mosleh, “Downwards Inference: Bayesian Analysis of Overlapping Higher- Level Data Sets of Complex Binary-State On-Demand Systems,” Accepted for Publication in Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2013.
Jackson and A. Mosleh, Bayesian Inference with Overlapping Data for Systems with Continuous Life Metrics Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 106(2012) 217-231
Enrique Lo´pez Droguett and Ali Mosleh, “Integrated Treatment of Model and Parameter Uncertainties Through a Bayesian Approach,” Journal of Risk and Reliability Volume 227 Issue 1, February 2013
Kazemi, R., Mosleh, A., “Improving Default Risk Prediction Using Bayesian Model Uncertainty Technique,” Risk Analysis, Vol 32, Issue 11, 2012.
Katrina M. Groth and Ali Mosleh. “A data-informed PIF hierarchy for model-based human reliability Analysis,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 108:154-174, December 2012.